The BashCast

Agenda:

 

[00:01:58] - Tom recaps the Smart-Bash event, the positives, the negatives, the-EV blackjack and the Jaeger Bombs that cost £1500

[00:33:04] - The Womens World Cup is underway – what edges are we looking at and given the goals in 2019 will it be overs and overs and overs and overs?

[00:49:17] -We have an email segment – some praise, some trolls, feedback from the BTC segment in the last BashCast and a technical question around Closing Line Value

[01:21:20] - And some words of honesty ahead of the school summer holiday break as Tom goes on the hunt for a new best friend. All of that and more coming up in the BashCast this afternoon

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

[00:02:20] - Tom heads to a poker tournament looking for back to back victories
[00:23:20] - Golf betting on the exchange - Pete from SBC joins us to discuss his strategies and fantasy golf betting
[00:53:00] - Twitter - an Icy tweet is negative, Tom comments on it
[01:00:30] - New tools released at bookiebashing this summer
[01:08:00] - Shots Fired - p-values and edges is there an edge at this trading community or is it smoke and mirrors? What is going on? 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

1. [00:02:11] - Tom fails to find panko breadcrumbs during a camping trip
2. [00:16:15] - Golf betting – a pointless exercise into working out which players have the lowest and the highest ROI
3. [00:32:11] - Horse racing – multiple wins to talk about - five figures and a six figures
4. [00:52:17] - Hey Jude – mega value with Bellingham and how we can use seemingly useless palps to find value in other areas
5. [01:01:16] - Shots on Target – A review of all historical lines between 2020 and 2023 and analysis of where bookmakers place bias within their over/under margins in player stats.

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

1. [00:02:00] - Tom goes to Portugal, sees naked people and gets diagnosed with ADHD
2. [00:06:52] - The unfortunate tale of a messy wedding, a headbutt and a stolen coat
3. [00:14:39] -  Bet histories – football p/l, Ireland vs France and where the player xG normalisation edges really exist
4. [00:41:42] - Steamers – are they an edge? Two contradictory analyses and a new bookiebashing tool
5. [00:59:12] - The story of the hole in one betting coup

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

1. [00:02:06] - Parent Child parking at Morrisons and the theory of the unreturned shopping Trolley
2. [00:12:40] - Tom takes a short trip to Aleppo in Syria
3. [00:25:35] - Cheltenham festival - a day to day breakdown and review of the performance of the BB Racing Tracker
4. [00:54:05] - We only sing when we're winning - so how has golf been in 2023?
5. [01:10:10] - DDHH - a 12 month, 560 bet review of ROI and swinginess
6. [01:23:50] - The professional betting GOAT and an insight into a game changing blackjack strategy

#bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda:

1. [01:50] Toms breaks his knee AND his hand before the annual golf shield, then loses headphones
2. [12:10] Horse racing – comparing the ROI of horses between the exchange and BBAlgo in 2023
3. [26:30] Soft Online Bookmakers - 7 suggestions for slowing down restrictions
4. [42:00] The Player xG Model – we’re nearing the final corner with lineups and scorecast models added
5. [54:39] A Golf update – downswings and sanitary products
6. [01:08:20] William Hill suffer a massive outage during the Superbowl, American customers can’t get paid
7. [01:16:10] WSOP Schedule – Are we playing it this year?

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

1. [00:02:17} Toms Xmas Dinner – what he got right, what he got wrong and how everybody let him down
2. [00:09:41]PDC World Championships – who’s in charge? Me or the devil. Correct score markets, 180s, session bets and two different betting datasets, a losing one and a winning one
3. [00:32:22] Continuation of the Player xG side project, we talk APIs for team news, first Goalscorer EV on the exchanges, the normalisation of data and the difficulties both with modelling scorecast and monitoring ROI
4. [00:45:22} Combobets blog mistake – Tom cocks up a combobets blog review then goes out on the piss. An explanation of those events right here and a break down combobets by bookmaker and type and why reporting is by game and not by bet
5. [01:04:05] Drama at Unabated and clickbait faux outrage over a 2011 palp
6. [01:49:04] A 2023 roadmap - R&D projects, big data, how to get in touch for 15 minute clinic calls with Tom (email Ivna@bookiebashing.net to schedule)

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:00] Tom reviews his shop and exchange p/l after betting on all 64 World Cup Matches
2. [00:23:05] Golf Results 2022 - A year in review - is it time to ditch the DP World Tour?
3. [00:41:00] PDC Darts World Championships
4. [00:50:54] Shots on Target - A bet history in the negative

 

#bettingat100.1 and above

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:06] Tom gets kicked by a 17 year old, goes to the pub then breaks a rib
2. [00:11:20] The golf model hits an extreme bout of positive variance but should we give up on the DP World Tour?
3. [00:29:27] England v Iran aftertiming summary - Jude Bellingham, Taremi 2+, Kane Shot on Target
4. [00:34:15] Tom goes through why he thinks Awarded Penalty is a bet at 6/4 in any game
5. [00:41:57] Who to look out for for First Goalscorers

 

#bettingat100.1 and above

Agenda:

1. [00:01:56} How does a four year old kill bad guys?
2. [00:05:06] A profit loss update from Toms betting for October/November
3. [00:36:17] The World Cup 2022 Preview - edges and angles
4. [01:02:45] Don't be one of these three idiots
5. [01:18:13} Bookiebashing bet tracker updates - Group trackers

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

 

1. [02:10] - Tom has had enough and switched off the news
2. [14:44] - Horse racing - estimating ROI with the +EV Lucky 15 lottery tickets
3. [28:15] - The golf hits a high variance period, but the "almost" wins are stacking up
4. [41:30] - Review of the coupons Aug-Sep and reports of a 24,000/1 tester bet landing
5. [51:44] - An empirical analysis to estimate underdisposition in the frequency of player braces and hattricks
6. [1:17:42} - J4o vs 78s - the poker world is rocked by a cheating scandal

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

2:20 - Tom goes surfing and meets campsite Hitler
27:30 - Should over 3.5 goals be odds on with xG of 3.54?
40:00 - Big Horse Racing win and why recorded ROI is higher than expected ROI
56:00 - Twitch clamp down on gambling
1:20:30 - Draftkings get stung on an early payout promotion in the NFL
1:29:40 - Player xG - lineup enhancements and confidence questions
1:55:00 - How to deal with losing runs

#bettingat100.1andabove

--Reuploaded due to technical issues--

Warning: Tom hasn't placed a bet since the previous episode. Listen at your own risk.

Agenda:

1. Tom recalls a Welsh Odyssey from a hot summer on the road
2. Is Poisson is suitable model for estimating Shots on Target? A real world history using Mo Salah
3. Site Stability, expectations and compensation
4. A history of Vegas Dave - should we have included him on an article about gamblers?
5. Tom react to the Social Media comments following the Betting People interviews

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

 

• Tom suffers a warm up injury ahead of Mindless Wanderers v Wychbold Old Boys Charity match
• Bookiebashing support system gets a revamp
• New model – Handicaps tool
• England Women v Switzerland Women – is the lack of confidence in modelling a good thing or a bad thing?
• Tom wins a $7.50 1,068 person heads up hyper turbo bounty tournament for $1,360 in bounties whilst babysitting

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

 Agenda:

• Tom goes camping and doesn't know he hit a winner in the golf for days
• Tom meets a group of 6-a-side lads discussing their terrible recreational mug bets on the PGA, doesn't know what to say
• Bookiebashing Charity 7-a-side to be held on the 24th June: https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/mindless-wanderers-ukraine-fundraising
• 20 DDHH bets at 90% ROI to review
• Both Bologna and Verona score in each half with outrageous value on the shop coupons
• Why NatWest want to kill babies

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:

1. Tom goes to turkey and gets annoyed by British tourists and then scammed
2. The SBC Betting Awards:T Pete Ling joins us for a chat
3. Golf betting: why you can't trust anybody
4. Double Delight Hattrick Heaven: how to calculate the EV
5. Why you're a prick: Part 4

#bettingat100.1andabove

 Agenda:

• Tom experiences a -EV trip to HobbyCraft after flirting with a 75 year old
• A BookieBashing subscriber hits the largest win of his betting career
• FTSIncome hold a networking event in Manchester and we were invited to join them
• The art of Edge Identification – 5 different types of Edge in Sports Advantage Play
• US Masters preview – Metrics, each way betting, to win, first round leader and Fantasy Draft Golf selections

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda

1. Neil Channing writes about a once in a generation chance to get things right
2. We don’t lose golf playoffs! But what percentile are we running hot on them?
3. A breakdown of how to quantify the risk of a player not starting
4. Jason Trost joins us on the BashCast to discuss a heap of Smarkets related topics
5. Smarkets and Bookiebashing both experience Cheltenham Day 1 downtime

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda

1. Tom gets headbutted by a three year old
2. Tom gets threatened by a guy in a polo shirt
3. Tom gets threatened outside a club in a skiing resort
4. Nathan from OddsHawk joins us to discuss the Oddshawk API feed for horse racing - available to all
5. Are multiples better than singles? What is the best multiple?
6. Value betting First Goalscorer on the exchange

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda

1. Problem gambling and restrictions
2. Tom orders 3 chilli margaritas in Bali
3. Malaysian businessman sues Aspinalls for £3.9 million
4. Stephen Chidwick is better at poker than you are

 

#BettingAt100.1AndAbove

Agenda:

1. Tom is fed up with the all the new gambling prohibition groups that have cropped up

2. A trip to Simply Red involves a -EV experience with a tout

3. The Player xG model evolves, goes backwards, but makes money regardless

4. Bet365 enter the boosts market, value around for those providing liquidity to the arbys

5. Win both Halves celebrates its 1,000th bet birthday so we look at ROI and potential improvements

6. Something quite extraordinary happens across the last 7 golf tournaments

 

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

 

#BettingAt100.1AndAbove

 

 

 

 

Agenda

1. After 2.5 years Tom is wearing glasses again, and has a disaster on Day 1
2. Coronavirus hits the team
3. A history of BookieBashing and a timelines of tools and trackers
4. How we create an edge in Shots on Target bets both at bookmaker and on exchange
5. Bankroll Management - an analysis of Unit Loss, Unit Win and Kelly staking plans on real life betting histories
6. Why You're A Prick returns

#Bettingat100.1andabove

In this weeks Agenda:

1. Stupid bike guy tries to ruin Toms Christmas
2. Losing runs through the festive period
3. Virtual Doubles and insane variance
4. The FA Cup 3rd Round re-capped
5. Unlucky Lucky 15 (horses) and an £18,000 change of mind
6. Lucky Lucky 15 (football)
7. The African Cup of Unders 2022
8. Andrew Woodman off of Politics joins us for a chat about Single Customer View, Source of Wealth and changes in legislation

 

#BettingAt100.1AndAbove

A Festive BashCast Christmas Chatter with Matthew Trenhaile:

1. Modelling expected goals
2. Modelling BTTS in big fav/dog games
3. Market compilation and why you can't be a hero
4. Artificial Intelligence in profiling customers
5. Markov Chains in Tennis Modelling
6. Winning without beating the closing line
7. Rebasing inplay
8. The softness of half time numbers
9. ROI vs Odds Magnitude
10. Exactly how did East 17s Brian Harvey run over his own foot

#bettingat100.01andabove

Agenda

1. Tom wins the Selly Oak Shield for the first time in history
2. Success on the #WhatOddsPaddys in the World Cup Qualifiers and why we should be looking forward to these games
3. Ireland vs New Zealand
4. Portugal vs Serbia
5. Three different concepts for managing runners - the Orwellian, Thatcherite and Marxist forms of managing a gambling team
6. 180s and 170s in the PDC World Championship 2022