The BashCast

The BashCast 203 - The Universal Theory of the Unreturned Shopping Trolley

Agenda:

1. [00:02:06] - Parent Child parking at Morrisons and the theory of the unreturned shopping Trolley
2. [00:12:40] - Tom takes a short trip to Aleppo in Syria
3. [00:25:35] - Cheltenham festival - a day to day breakdown and review of the performance of the BB Racing Tracker
4. [00:54:05] - We only sing when we're winning - so how has golf been in 2023?
5. [01:10:10] - DDHH - a 12 month, 560 bet review of ROI and swinginess
6. [01:23:50] - The professional betting GOAT and an insight into a game changing blackjack strategy

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The BashCast Episode 202 - The Flippity Floppity

Agenda:

1. [01:50] Toms breaks his knee AND his hand before the annual golf shield, then loses headphones
2. [12:10] Horse racing – comparing the ROI of horses between the exchange and BBAlgo in 2023
3. [26:30] Soft Online Bookmakers - 7 suggestions for slowing down restrictions
4. [42:00] The Player xG Model – we’re nearing the final corner with lineups and scorecast models added
5. [54:39] A Golf update – downswings and sanitary products
6. [01:08:20] William Hill suffer a massive outage during the Superbowl, American customers can’t get paid
7. [01:16:10] WSOP Schedule – Are we playing it this year?

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 201 - The Devil is in Charge of 2023

Agenda:

1. [00:02:17} Toms Xmas Dinner – what he got right, what he got wrong and how everybody let him down
2. [00:09:41]PDC World Championships – who’s in charge? Me or the devil. Correct score markets, 180s, session bets and two different betting datasets, a losing one and a winning one
3. [00:32:22] Continuation of the Player xG side project, we talk APIs for team news, first Goalscorer EV on the exchanges, the normalisation of data and the difficulties both with modelling scorecast and monitoring ROI
4. [00:45:22} Combobets blog mistake – Tom cocks up a combobets blog review then goes out on the piss. An explanation of those events right here and a break down combobets by bookmaker and type and why reporting is by game and not by bet
5. [01:04:05] Drama at Unabated and clickbait faux outrage over a 2011 palp
6. [01:49:04] A 2023 roadmap - R&D projects, big data, how to get in touch for 15 minute clinic calls with Tom (email Ivna@bookiebashing.net to schedule)

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 200 - World Cup of Actually That Wasn’t a Pen

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:00] Tom reviews his shop and exchange p/l after betting on all 64 World Cup Matches
2. [00:23:05] Golf Results 2022 - A year in review - is it time to ditch the DP World Tour?
3. [00:41:00] PDC Darts World Championships
4. [00:50:54] Shots on Target - A bet history in the negative

 

#bettingat100.1 and above

The BashCast 199 -The World Cup of Awarded Penalties

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:06] Tom gets kicked by a 17 year old, goes to the pub then breaks a rib
2. [00:11:20] The golf model hits an extreme bout of positive variance but should we give up on the DP World Tour?
3. [00:29:27] England v Iran aftertiming summary - Jude Bellingham, Taremi 2+, Kane Shot on Target
4. [00:34:15] Tom goes through why he thinks Awarded Penalty is a bet at 6/4 in any game
5. [00:41:57] Who to look out for for First Goalscorers

 

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The BashCast 198 - Bad Guys and The World Cup 2022

Agenda:

1. [00:01:56} How does a four year old kill bad guys?
2. [00:05:06] A profit loss update from Toms betting for October/November
3. [00:36:17] The World Cup 2022 Preview - edges and angles
4. [01:02:45] Don't be one of these three idiots
5. [01:18:13} Bookiebashing bet tracker updates - Group trackers

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The BashCast 197 - The Devil You Know is Better Than the One You Don’t

Agenda:

 

1. [02:10] - Tom has had enough and switched off the news
2. [14:44] - Horse racing - estimating ROI with the +EV Lucky 15 lottery tickets
3. [28:15] - The golf hits a high variance period, but the "almost" wins are stacking up
4. [41:30] - Review of the coupons Aug-Sep and reports of a 24,000/1 tester bet landing
5. [51:44] - An empirical analysis to estimate underdisposition in the frequency of player braces and hattricks
6. [1:17:42} - J4o vs 78s - the poker world is rocked by a cheating scandal

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 196 - Solve for Y is o3.5 odds against?

Agenda:

2:20 - Tom goes surfing and meets campsite Hitler
27:30 - Should over 3.5 goals be odds on with xG of 3.54?
40:00 - Big Horse Racing win and why recorded ROI is higher than expected ROI
56:00 - Twitch clamp down on gambling
1:20:30 - Draftkings get stung on an early payout promotion in the NFL
1:29:40 - Player xG - lineup enhancements and confidence questions
1:55:00 - How to deal with losing runs

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The BashCast Episode 195 - 101s for show 140s for dough

--Reuploaded due to technical issues--

Warning: Tom hasn't placed a bet since the previous episode. Listen at your own risk.

Agenda:

1. Tom recalls a Welsh Odyssey from a hot summer on the road
2. Is Poisson is suitable model for estimating Shots on Target? A real world history using Mo Salah
3. Site Stability, expectations and compensation
4. A history of Vegas Dave - should we have included him on an article about gamblers?
5. Tom react to the Social Media comments following the Betting People interviews

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The BashCast Episode 194 - Handicap Spot

Agenda:

 

• Tom suffers a warm up injury ahead of Mindless Wanderers v Wychbold Old Boys Charity match
• Bookiebashing support system gets a revamp
• New model – Handicaps tool
• England Women v Switzerland Women – is the lack of confidence in modelling a good thing or a bad thing?
• Tom wins a $7.50 1,068 person heads up hyper turbo bounty tournament for $1,360 in bounties whilst babysitting

 

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The BashCast Episode 193 - Blissful ignorance

 Agenda:

• Tom goes camping and doesn't know he hit a winner in the golf for days
• Tom meets a group of 6-a-side lads discussing their terrible recreational mug bets on the PGA, doesn't know what to say
• Bookiebashing Charity 7-a-side to be held on the 24th June: https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/mindless-wanderers-ukraine-fundraising
• 20 DDHH bets at 90% ROI to review
• Both Bologna and Verona score in each half with outrageous value on the shop coupons
• Why NatWest want to kill babies

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 192 - Charity is a coat you wear twice a year

Agenda:

1. Tom goes to turkey and gets annoyed by British tourists and then scammed
2. The SBC Betting Awards:T Pete Ling joins us for a chat
3. Golf betting: why you can't trust anybody
4. Double Delight Hattrick Heaven: how to calculate the EV
5. Why you're a prick: Part 4

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The BashCast Episode 191 - CraftKings and Augusta

 Agenda:

• Tom experiences a -EV trip to HobbyCraft after flirting with a 75 year old
• A BookieBashing subscriber hits the largest win of his betting career
• FTSIncome hold a networking event in Manchester and we were invited to join them
• The art of Edge Identification – 5 different types of Edge in Sports Advantage Play
• US Masters preview – Metrics, each way betting, to win, first round leader and Fantasy Draft Golf selections

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 190 - In God we Trost

Agenda

1. Neil Channing writes about a once in a generation chance to get things right
2. We don’t lose golf playoffs! But what percentile are we running hot on them?
3. A breakdown of how to quantify the risk of a player not starting
4. Jason Trost joins us on the BashCast to discuss a heap of Smarkets related topics
5. Smarkets and Bookiebashing both experience Cheltenham Day 1 downtime

 

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The BashCast Episode 189 - Lucky 15s, Headbutts and FGS

Agenda

1. Tom gets headbutted by a three year old
2. Tom gets threatened by a guy in a polo shirt
3. Tom gets threatened outside a club in a skiing resort
4. Nathan from OddsHawk joins us to discuss the Oddshawk API feed for horse racing - available to all
5. Are multiples better than singles? What is the best multiple?
6. Value betting First Goalscorer on the exchange

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 188 - Chilli Margaritas and Problem Gambling

Agenda

1. Problem gambling and restrictions
2. Tom orders 3 chilli margaritas in Bali
3. Malaysian businessman sues Aspinalls for £3.9 million
4. Stephen Chidwick is better at poker than you are

 

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The BashCast episode 187 - Several Standard Deviants

Agenda:

1. Tom is fed up with the all the new gambling prohibition groups that have cropped up

2. A trip to Simply Red involves a -EV experience with a tout

3. The Player xG model evolves, goes backwards, but makes money regardless

4. Bet365 enter the boosts market, value around for those providing liquidity to the arbys

5. Win both Halves celebrates its 1,000th bet birthday so we look at ROI and potential improvements

6. Something quite extraordinary happens across the last 7 golf tournaments

 

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

 

#BettingAt100.1AndAbove

 

 

 

 

The BashCast Episode 186 - A Brief History of Bashing

Agenda

1. After 2.5 years Tom is wearing glasses again, and has a disaster on Day 1
2. Coronavirus hits the team
3. A history of BookieBashing and a timelines of tools and trackers
4. How we create an edge in Shots on Target bets both at bookmaker and on exchange
5. Bankroll Management - an analysis of Unit Loss, Unit Win and Kelly staking plans on real life betting histories
6. Why You're A Prick returns

#Bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 185 - The African Cup of Unders 2022

In this weeks Agenda:

1. Stupid bike guy tries to ruin Toms Christmas
2. Losing runs through the festive period
3. Virtual Doubles and insane variance
4. The FA Cup 3rd Round re-capped
5. Unlucky Lucky 15 (horses) and an £18,000 change of mind
6. Lucky Lucky 15 (football)
7. The African Cup of Unders 2022
8. Andrew Woodman off of Politics joins us for a chat about Single Customer View, Source of Wealth and changes in legislation

 

#BettingAt100.1AndAbove

The BashCast Episode 184 - Christmas Special: Trench Warfare

A Festive BashCast Christmas Chatter with Matthew Trenhaile:

1. Modelling expected goals
2. Modelling BTTS in big fav/dog games
3. Market compilation and why you can't be a hero
4. Artificial Intelligence in profiling customers
5. Markov Chains in Tennis Modelling
6. Winning without beating the closing line
7. Rebasing inplay
8. The softness of half time numbers
9. ROI vs Odds Magnitude
10. Exactly how did East 17s Brian Harvey run over his own foot

#bettingat100.01andabove

The BashCast Episode 183 - Probably the most annoying opening podcast audio of all time

Agenda

1. Tom wins the Selly Oak Shield for the first time in history
2. Success on the #WhatOddsPaddys in the World Cup Qualifiers and why we should be looking forward to these games
3. Ireland vs New Zealand
4. Portugal vs Serbia
5. Three different concepts for managing runners - the Orwellian, Thatcherite and Marxist forms of managing a gambling team
6. 180s and 170s in the PDC World Championship 2022

 

 

The BashCast Episode 182 - Joseph Buchdahl - Monte Carlo or Bust

Betting analyst and author Joseph Buchdahl joins the BashCast for a chat about:

1. The Monte Carlo Casino, August 18th 1913
2. Monte Carlo or Bust - the writing process
3. The Wisdom of the Crowd Betting Theory
4. Bias - is estimating bias Maths, Science, Art or a bit of all?
5. Monte Carlo Simulations and why every bettor should choose them
6. Where the Sharps are - using a Weibull probability distribution for estimating goals in football
7. Pinnacle Articles - the writing process
8. Libertarianism vs gambling - should we be free to decide how much we can bet?

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 181 - McLovin Never Existed

Agenda

1. DraftKings Equity in Golf and the FBWC Farcical Betting World Championships 2021
2. England vs Andorra - calculating BTTS in difficult markets when a team is very unlikely to score
3. Interview with McLovin - bookiebashing member McLovin joins us to discuss technology, artificial intelligence and OCR and how we can see a vast improvement and increase in the value and equity from coupons moving forward

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The BashCast Episode 180 - I Fought the Law & the Law of Entropy Won

Agenda

 

1. Tom is involved in a near car crash and loses his cool
2. Busting a bankroll - it happens to the best of us
3. RIP Great Sports Offers
4. Experimental Coupons - on the search for value in new markets
5. Patterns in randomness and the horse racing tracker ROI
6. Why You're a Prick Returns

 

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

The BashCast Episode 179 - Keeping The British End Up

This weeks agenda

1. Tom discusses his weekend from hell
2. Mistakes in betting - accuracy vs volume
3. 0 letters in the mailbag. Please send any praise, questions, critique or money to tom@bookiebashing.net
4. An insane tweet and a need for an Institute amongst gamblers
5. The next Bond - an update!