The BashCast

BashCast 220 - Discretionary Service Scam

[00:02:00] - Tom goes to see Moby and calls for an end to the scam that is discretionary services charges at restaurants
[00:22:50] - Explaining the concept of normalisation in data organisation and how it can be applied to betting for an edge
[00:39:34] - A deep dive into the inter-relationships between Team Most Shots on Target and Team to Win and whether there is a decent bet on Stoke vs Hull tonight

#bettingat100.1andabove

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet

Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

The BashCast 219 - Zombies, Surfing and Mushroom Pizza

Agenda:

[00:02:00] - Look out, because Tom is back from the summer break and has switched on the projector to recount tales of surfing, zombies and mushroom pizza
[00:20:56] - We look further back to the SmartBash 2024 and review the positives, the negatives and a request for a couple to get in touch
[00:37:12] - The Gambling Reform Summit has taken place in Westminster this September, has any apparent value come from it?
[00:53:14] - We finish with a look at a heater that has started off Toms Autumn Season of betting.

#bettingat100.1andabove

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet
Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

The BashCast 218 - Environmental Services cannot find us

Agenda:

[00:02:02] - Tom finds out Environmental Services are after him
[00:08:05] - 2024 Smart Betting Club Awards - The BashCast is back
[00:22:52] - More bad behaviour on Social Media - Fanwave Digital, Badmanbetting, Racing Blogger and Pro Sports Advice
[00:56:08] - Is the Gambling Commission investigation into insider betting on the election a waste of time?

#bettingat100.1andabove

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net
Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet
Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

The BashCast 217 - At least we know we're alive

Agenda:

[00:01:54] - We discuss the long-short paradox of time and how it applies to betting
[00:10:50] - Tom figures out he can still bet on Eurovision after he knows the result, but should he?
[00:20:13] - An exchange edge on the 8 place market in golf that everyone can play in
[00:33:18] - The good and the bad from the goalscorer betting worlds as Tom gets Lucky
[00:46:29] - And we finish with a look at the charlatans at the Guardian and the anything-but Charlatans at the SmartBash

#bettingat100.1andabove

 

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet

Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

 

The BashCast 216 -The Wrong Svensson

Agenda:

• [00:02:30] Tom goes to Disneyland, finds it has the lowest ROI of anything in the world
• [00:15:48] My Gambling history – where I started ,how I met some syndicates, why Duncan started bookiebashing in my kitchen and whether we can speak from any position of authority
• [00:46:14] SmartBash 2024 – tickets are selling fast, we have some big names that will be announced soon, big panels and bigger discussions planed at the UKs premier punter focussed networking event
• [01:02:01] Udinese v Bologna -= an example of where huge equite in a game where big value bets don’t mean nothing to the overall profit/loss picture
• [01:16:20] Betting isn’t for everyone – why you shouldn’t tell anyone you’re successful at punting on sports
• [01:31:39] From across the pond – gambling stories from the NFL and MLB that will make your eyes water

#bettingat100.1andabove

NB: We know there are some sound issues on the BashCast where some segments are loud and others are quieter. This is being worked on for future episodes!

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet
Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

215 - A SmartBash 2024 Announcement

Agenda:

[00:01:55] - Toms answers a question from a Pinnacle Odds Compiler over M25 roadworks
[00:15:36] - Jesse May and Ronan join us for a sneaky peak chat about Smart Bash 2024 (in association with Matchbook) this summer – and this time, everyone is invited to the party
[00:30:32] - A profit loss review for Toms gambling in shops and on exchanges in February and March
[00:49:58] - Cheltenham Festival Wrap Up
[01:06:05] - Is over 3.5 the new over 2.5? What is going on with premiership goals this season

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/

#bettingat100.1andabove

Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet
Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

The BashCast 214 - Cheltenham 2024, winners, losers, loser tipsters, addicts and the GCF

Agenda:

[00:01:40] - Tom quits drinking only to be disappointed in the entire human race
[00:10:10] - Cheltenham festival is round the corner - we look at tipsters, who you can trust and who you cannot trust
[00:35:27] - A shift in liquiidty at the exchanges as Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets catch ground on Betfair
[00:48:54] - Abbie MacGregor and Andrew Woodman off of the Gamblers Consumer Forum join us to discuss last weeks debate on affordability checks in gambling at Parliament

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

#bettingat100.1andabove

https://gamblersconsumerforum.com/
https://twitter.com/GamblersCForum 

The BashCast 213 - Scamwave Digital and superusers

Agenda:

[00:01:40] - Tom recounts the time when he caused the meltdown of the cloakroom ticketing system at the Zanzibar nightclub in 1996.
[00:15:10] - We revisit @AndryRobsonTips after the last BashCast and have more information about the origins of these tweets.
[00:41:00] - We break down some of the mathematics of the enhanced specials at betdaq to show how to find value with or without a bookiebashing subscription.
[00:58:11] - New scandals are breaking in the online poker world
[01:21:35] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - Part 2

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

#bettingat100.1andabove 

The BashCast 212 - The Morals and Maths of Twitter Tipsters

Agenda:

 

[00:01:55] - Toms Xmas Dinner ends up on the kitchen floor

[00:09:03] - An in depth review of the mathematics and morals of @AndyRobsonTips

[00:51:27] - Pricing Luke Littler in the PDC World Championships

[01:12:47] - Exchange edges and a partnership with Betdaq

[01:35:28] - A looks at my first shop bets of the year and has anything changed in the models for 2024?

[01:54:00] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - a new feature on the BashCast

 

Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

The BashCast 211 - Jon Roberts off of Predictology

Agenda:

We are joined by Jon Roberts from Predictology. In this episode we discuss I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, skillsets for beating the markets, the logistics of reliable odds collection, modelling football, historical trending, pre-match vs inplay edges and the all important 2023 BashCast Xmas Quiz.

https://www.predictology.co/
https://www.youtube.com/@predictology
https://www.bookiebashing.net/

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 210 - Will Somebody Stop The Damn Match

Agenda:

 

[00:01:47] - Toms recounts a ten pin bowling evening that ends with putting someone in hospital

[00:12:43] - Horse racing ups and downs through the year and optimising horses by odds band

[00:28:49] - Newcastle play Dortmund in the Champions League and we look at edges in the Players xG

[00:44:50] - A consultation on the bookiebashing bet tracker and whether it does more harm than good

[01:18:53] - A Prisoners Dilemma as two advantage players find a loophole in video poker machines

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 209 - A Race Riot and the Thorpedo

Agenda:

[00:01:59] - Tom donates some money from a Mudryk win and recounts a story when he nearly caused a racial riot
[00:13:08] - A Ryder Cup summary, a few decent edges and angles and a missed opportunity
[00:34:57] - Betfred have a new Hotshots coupon in shops, how to calculate the value in a team to have the most goals on a Champions League evening
[00:52:10] - New Bookiebashing member Hussain joins us to share with us some $$$ success stories from his first few months value betting
[01:08:45] - The Gambling Commission send an extraordinary letter to the Racing Post. Can the Can Can man save us?

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 208 - A Charlatan Challenging What Others Think is Possible.

Agenda:

[00:01:46] - Tom gets into trouble with an exotic bird over the summer holidays
[00:21:00] - The Rugby World Cup – modelling points with a negative binomial probability, Fijian value + the xPlayerTries model
[00:39:19] - Thrill Seeker. Disrupter. Charlatan - a copycat challenges what others think is possible by copying our horse racing tracker. We explain why it doesn’t have much chance
[01:11:23] - And Aaron Rodgers achilles heel seems to be voided prop bets.

#bettingat100.1andabove 

The BashCast 207 - The £1500 Jaeger Bomb and a new best friend

Agenda:

 

[00:01:58] - Tom recaps the Smart-Bash event, the positives, the negatives, the-EV blackjack and the Jaeger Bombs that cost £1500

[00:33:04] - The Womens World Cup is underway – what edges are we looking at and given the goals in 2019 will it be overs and overs and overs and overs?

[00:49:17] -We have an email segment – some praise, some trolls, feedback from the BTC segment in the last BashCast and a technical question around Closing Line Value

[01:21:20] - And some words of honesty ahead of the school summer holiday break as Tom goes on the hunt for a new best friend. All of that and more coming up in the BashCast this afternoon

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 206 - p-Values and Beer

Agenda:

[00:02:20] - Tom heads to a poker tournament looking for back to back victories
[00:23:20] - Golf betting on the exchange - Pete from SBC joins us to discuss his strategies and fantasy golf betting
[00:53:00] - Twitter - an Icy tweet is negative, Tom comments on it
[01:00:30] - New tools released at bookiebashing this summer
[01:08:00] - Shots Fired - p-values and edges is there an edge at this trading community or is it smoke and mirrors? What is going on? 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 205 - Coconut Crispy Shots on Target

Agenda:

1. [00:02:11] - Tom fails to find panko breadcrumbs during a camping trip
2. [00:16:15] - Golf betting – a pointless exercise into working out which players have the lowest and the highest ROI
3. [00:32:11] - Horse racing – multiple wins to talk about - five figures and a six figures
4. [00:52:17] - Hey Jude – mega value with Bellingham and how we can use seemingly useless palps to find value in other areas
5. [01:01:16] - Shots on Target – A review of all historical lines between 2020 and 2023 and analysis of where bookmakers place bias within their over/under margins in player stats.

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 204 - Whats the ROI of your mother?

Agenda:

1. [00:02:00] - Tom goes to Portugal, sees naked people and gets diagnosed with ADHD
2. [00:06:52] - The unfortunate tale of a messy wedding, a headbutt and a stolen coat
3. [00:14:39] -  Bet histories – football p/l, Ireland vs France and where the player xG normalisation edges really exist
4. [00:41:42] - Steamers – are they an edge? Two contradictory analyses and a new bookiebashing tool
5. [00:59:12] - The story of the hole in one betting coup

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 203 - The Universal Theory of the Unreturned Shopping Trolley

Agenda:

1. [00:02:06] - Parent Child parking at Morrisons and the theory of the unreturned shopping Trolley
2. [00:12:40] - Tom takes a short trip to Aleppo in Syria
3. [00:25:35] - Cheltenham festival - a day to day breakdown and review of the performance of the BB Racing Tracker
4. [00:54:05] - We only sing when we're winning - so how has golf been in 2023?
5. [01:10:10] - DDHH - a 12 month, 560 bet review of ROI and swinginess
6. [01:23:50] - The professional betting GOAT and an insight into a game changing blackjack strategy

#bettingat100.1andabove 

The BashCast Episode 202 - The Flippity Floppity

Agenda:

1. [01:50] Toms breaks his knee AND his hand before the annual golf shield, then loses headphones
2. [12:10] Horse racing – comparing the ROI of horses between the exchange and BBAlgo in 2023
3. [26:30] Soft Online Bookmakers - 7 suggestions for slowing down restrictions
4. [42:00] The Player xG Model – we’re nearing the final corner with lineups and scorecast models added
5. [54:39] A Golf update – downswings and sanitary products
6. [01:08:20] William Hill suffer a massive outage during the Superbowl, American customers can’t get paid
7. [01:16:10] WSOP Schedule – Are we playing it this year?

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 201 - The Devil is in Charge of 2023

Agenda:

1. [00:02:17} Toms Xmas Dinner – what he got right, what he got wrong and how everybody let him down
2. [00:09:41]PDC World Championships – who’s in charge? Me or the devil. Correct score markets, 180s, session bets and two different betting datasets, a losing one and a winning one
3. [00:32:22] Continuation of the Player xG side project, we talk APIs for team news, first Goalscorer EV on the exchanges, the normalisation of data and the difficulties both with modelling scorecast and monitoring ROI
4. [00:45:22} Combobets blog mistake – Tom cocks up a combobets blog review then goes out on the piss. An explanation of those events right here and a break down combobets by bookmaker and type and why reporting is by game and not by bet
5. [01:04:05] Drama at Unabated and clickbait faux outrage over a 2011 palp
6. [01:49:04] A 2023 roadmap - R&D projects, big data, how to get in touch for 15 minute clinic calls with Tom (email Ivna@bookiebashing.net to schedule)

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 200 - World Cup of Actually That Wasn’t a Pen

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:00] Tom reviews his shop and exchange p/l after betting on all 64 World Cup Matches
2. [00:23:05] Golf Results 2022 - A year in review - is it time to ditch the DP World Tour?
3. [00:41:00] PDC Darts World Championships
4. [00:50:54] Shots on Target - A bet history in the negative

 

#bettingat100.1 and above

The BashCast 199 -The World Cup of Awarded Penalties

Agenda:

 

1. [00:02:06] Tom gets kicked by a 17 year old, goes to the pub then breaks a rib
2. [00:11:20] The golf model hits an extreme bout of positive variance but should we give up on the DP World Tour?
3. [00:29:27] England v Iran aftertiming summary - Jude Bellingham, Taremi 2+, Kane Shot on Target
4. [00:34:15] Tom goes through why he thinks Awarded Penalty is a bet at 6/4 in any game
5. [00:41:57] Who to look out for for First Goalscorers

 

#bettingat100.1 and above

The BashCast 198 - Bad Guys and The World Cup 2022

Agenda:

1. [00:01:56} How does a four year old kill bad guys?
2. [00:05:06] A profit loss update from Toms betting for October/November
3. [00:36:17] The World Cup 2022 Preview - edges and angles
4. [01:02:45] Don't be one of these three idiots
5. [01:18:13} Bookiebashing bet tracker updates - Group trackers

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast 197 - The Devil You Know is Better Than the One You Don’t

Agenda:

 

1. [02:10] - Tom has had enough and switched off the news
2. [14:44] - Horse racing - estimating ROI with the +EV Lucky 15 lottery tickets
3. [28:15] - The golf hits a high variance period, but the "almost" wins are stacking up
4. [41:30] - Review of the coupons Aug-Sep and reports of a 24,000/1 tester bet landing
5. [51:44] - An empirical analysis to estimate underdisposition in the frequency of player braces and hattricks
6. [1:17:42} - J4o vs 78s - the poker world is rocked by a cheating scandal

 

#bettingat100.1andabove

The BashCast Episode 196 - Solve for Y is o3.5 odds against?

Agenda:

2:20 - Tom goes surfing and meets campsite Hitler
27:30 - Should over 3.5 goals be odds on with xG of 3.54?
40:00 - Big Horse Racing win and why recorded ROI is higher than expected ROI
56:00 - Twitch clamp down on gambling
1:20:30 - Draftkings get stung on an early payout promotion in the NFL
1:29:40 - Player xG - lineup enhancements and confidence questions
1:55:00 - How to deal with losing runs

#bettingat100.1andabove