Episodes
Friday Mar 22, 2024
215 - A SmartBash 2024 Announcement
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Agenda:
[00:01:55] - Toms answers a question from a Pinnacle Odds Compiler over M25 roadworks
[00:15:36] - Jesse May and Ronan join us for a sneaky peak chat about Smart Bash 2024 (in association with Matchbook) this summer – and this time, everyone is invited to the party
[00:30:32] - A profit loss review for Toms gambling in shops and on exchanges in February and March
[00:49:58] - Cheltenham Festival Wrap Up
[01:06:05] - Is over 3.5 the new over 2.5? What is going on with premiership goals this season
Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net
Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/
#bettingat100.1andabove
Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet
Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Friday Mar 08, 2024
Agenda:
[00:01:40] - Tom quits drinking only to be disappointed in the entire human race
[00:10:10] - Cheltenham festival is round the corner - we look at tipsters, who you can trust and who you cannot trust
[00:35:27] - A shift in liquiidty at the exchanges as Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets catch ground on Betfair
[00:48:54] - Abbie MacGregor and Andrew Woodman off of the Gamblers Consumer Forum join us to discuss last weeks debate on affordability checks in gambling at Parliament
Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net
#bettingat100.1andabove
https://gamblersconsumerforum.com/
https://twitter.com/GamblersCForum
Saturday Jan 27, 2024
The BashCast 213 - Scamwave Digital and superusers
Saturday Jan 27, 2024
Saturday Jan 27, 2024
Agenda:
[00:01:40] - Tom recounts the time when he caused the meltdown of the cloakroom ticketing system at the Zanzibar nightclub in 1996.
[00:15:10] - We revisit @AndryRobsonTips after the last BashCast and have more information about the origins of these tweets.
[00:41:00] - We break down some of the mathematics of the enhanced specials at betdaq to show how to find value with or without a bookiebashing subscription.
[00:58:11] - New scandals are breaking in the online poker world
[01:21:35] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - Part 2
Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net
#bettingat100.1andabove
Saturday Jan 13, 2024
The BashCast 212 - The Morals and Maths of Twitter Tipsters
Saturday Jan 13, 2024
Saturday Jan 13, 2024
Thursday Nov 23, 2023
The BashCast 211 - Jon Roberts off of Predictology
Thursday Nov 23, 2023
Thursday Nov 23, 2023
Agenda:
We are joined by Jon Roberts from Predictology. In this episode we discuss I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, skillsets for beating the markets, the logistics of reliable odds collection, modelling football, historical trending, pre-match vs inplay edges and the all important 2023 BashCast Xmas Quiz.
https://www.predictology.co/
https://www.youtube.com/@predictology
https://www.bookiebashing.net/
#bettingat100.1andabove
Friday Oct 27, 2023
The BashCast 210 - Will Somebody Stop The Damn Match
Friday Oct 27, 2023
Friday Oct 27, 2023
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
The BashCast 209 - A Race Riot and the Thorpedo
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
Wednesday Oct 04, 2023
Agenda:
[00:01:59] - Tom donates some money from a Mudryk win and recounts a story when he nearly caused a racial riot
[00:13:08] - A Ryder Cup summary, a few decent edges and angles and a missed opportunity
[00:34:57] - Betfred have a new Hotshots coupon in shops, how to calculate the value in a team to have the most goals on a Champions League evening
[00:52:10] - New Bookiebashing member Hussain joins us to share with us some $$$ success stories from his first few months value betting
[01:08:45] - The Gambling Commission send an extraordinary letter to the Racing Post. Can the Can Can man save us?
#bettingat100.1andabove
Wednesday Sep 20, 2023
The BashCast 208 - A Charlatan Challenging What Others Think is Possible.
Wednesday Sep 20, 2023
Wednesday Sep 20, 2023
Agenda:
[00:01:46] - Tom gets into trouble with an exotic bird over the summer holidays
[00:21:00] - The Rugby World Cup – modelling points with a negative binomial probability, Fijian value + the xPlayerTries model
[00:39:19] - Thrill Seeker. Disrupter. Charlatan - a copycat challenges what others think is possible by copying our horse racing tracker. We explain why it doesn’t have much chance
[01:11:23] - And Aaron Rodgers achilles heel seems to be voided prop bets.
#bettingat100.1andabove
Thursday Jul 20, 2023
The BashCast 207 - The £1500 Jaeger Bomb and a new best friend
Thursday Jul 20, 2023
Thursday Jul 20, 2023
Thursday Jun 29, 2023
The BashCast Episode 206 - p-Values and Beer
Thursday Jun 29, 2023
Thursday Jun 29, 2023
Agenda:
[00:02:20] - Tom heads to a poker tournament looking for back to back victories
[00:23:20] - Golf betting on the exchange - Pete from SBC joins us to discuss his strategies and fantasy golf betting
[00:53:00] - Twitter - an Icy tweet is negative, Tom comments on it
[01:00:30] - New tools released at bookiebashing this summer
[01:08:00] - Shots Fired - p-values and edges is there an edge at this trading community or is it smoke and mirrors? What is going on?
Saturday Jun 10, 2023
The BashCast Episode 205 - Coconut Crispy Shots on Target
Saturday Jun 10, 2023
Saturday Jun 10, 2023
Agenda:
- [00:02:11] - Tom fails to find panko breadcrumbs during a camping trip
- [00:16:15] - Golf betting – a pointless exercise into working out which players have the lowest and the highest ROI
- [00:32:11] - Horse racing – multiple wins to talk about - five figures and a six figures
- [00:52:17] - Hey Jude – mega value with Bellingham and how we can use seemingly useless palps to find value in other areas
- [01:01:16] - Shots on Target – A review of all historical lines between 2020 and 2023 and analysis of where bookmakers place bias within their over/under margins in player stats.
Friday Apr 21, 2023
The BashCast Episode 204 - Whats the ROI of your mother?
Friday Apr 21, 2023
Friday Apr 21, 2023
-
[00:02:00] - Tom goes to Portugal, sees naked people and gets diagnosed with ADHD
-
[00:06:52] - The unfortunate tale of a messy wedding, a headbutt and a stolen coat
-
[00:14:39] - Bet histories – football p/l, Ireland vs France and where the player xG normalisation edges really exist
-
[00:41:42] - Steamers – are they an edge? Two contradictory analyses and a new bookiebashing tool
-
[00:59:12] - The story of the hole in one betting coup
Thursday Mar 23, 2023
The BashCast 203 - The Universal Theory of the Unreturned Shopping Trolley
Thursday Mar 23, 2023
Thursday Mar 23, 2023
- [00:02:06] - Parent Child parking at Morrisons and the theory of the unreturned shopping Trolley
- [00:12:40] - Tom takes a short trip to Aleppo in Syria
- [00:25:35] - Cheltenham festival - a day to day breakdown and review of the performance of the BB Racing Tracker
- [00:54:05] - We only sing when we're winning - so how has golf been in 2023?
- [01:10:10] - DDHH - a 12 month, 560 bet review of ROI and swinginess
- [01:23:50] - The professional betting GOAT and an insight into a game changing blackjack strategy
Thursday Feb 23, 2023
The BashCast Episode 202 - The Flippity Floppity
Thursday Feb 23, 2023
Thursday Feb 23, 2023
-
[01:50] Toms breaks his knee AND his hand before the annual golf shield, then loses headphones
-
[12:10] Horse racing – comparing the ROI of horses between the exchange and BBAlgo in 2023
-
[26:30] Soft Online Bookmakers - 7 suggestions for slowing down restrictions
-
[42:00] The Player xG Model – we’re nearing the final corner with lineups and scorecast models added
-
[54:39] A Golf update – downswings and sanitary products
-
[01:08:20] William Hill suffer a massive outage during the Superbowl, American customers can’t get paid
-
[01:16:10] WSOP Schedule – Are we playing it this year?
Friday Jan 13, 2023
The BashCast Episode 201 - The Devil is in Charge of 2023
Friday Jan 13, 2023
Friday Jan 13, 2023
Agenda:
- [00:02:17} Toms Xmas Dinner – what he got right, what he got wrong and how everybody let him down
- [00:09:41]PDC World Championships – who’s in charge? Me or the devil. Correct score markets, 180s, session bets and two different betting datasets, a losing one and a winning one
- [00:32:22] Continuation of the Player xG side project, we talk APIs for team news, first Goalscorer EV on the exchanges, the normalisation of data and the difficulties both with modelling scorecast and monitoring ROI
- [00:45:22} Combobets blog mistake – Tom cocks up a combobets blog review then goes out on the piss. An explanation of those events right here and a break down combobets by bookmaker and type and why reporting is by game and not by bet
- [01:04:05] Drama at Unabated and clickbait faux outrage over a 2011 palp
- [01:49:04] A 2023 roadmap - R&D projects, big data, how to get in touch for 15 minute clinic calls with Tom (email Ivna@bookiebashing.net to schedule)
Wednesday Dec 21, 2022
The BashCast 200 - World Cup of Actually That Wasn’t a Pen
Wednesday Dec 21, 2022
Wednesday Dec 21, 2022
-
[00:02:00] Tom reviews his shop and exchange p/l after betting on all 64 World Cup Matches
-
[00:23:05] Golf Results 2022 - A year in review - is it time to ditch the DP World Tour?
-
[00:41:00] PDC Darts World Championships
- [00:50:54] Shots on Target - A bet history in the negative
Wednesday Nov 23, 2022
The BashCast 199 -The World Cup of Awarded Penalties
Wednesday Nov 23, 2022
Wednesday Nov 23, 2022
-
[00:02:06] Tom gets kicked by a 17 year old, goes to the pub then breaks a rib
-
[00:11:20] The golf model hits an extreme bout of positive variance but should we give up on the DP World Tour?
-
[00:29:27] England v Iran aftertiming summary - Jude Bellingham, Taremi 2+, Kane Shot on Target
-
[00:34:15] Tom goes through why he thinks Awarded Penalty is a bet at 6/4 in any game
-
[00:41:57] Who to look out for for First Goalscorers
Friday Nov 11, 2022
The BashCast 198 - Bad Guys and The World Cup 2022
Friday Nov 11, 2022
Friday Nov 11, 2022
-
[00:01:56} How does a four year old kill bad guys?
-
[00:05:06] A profit loss update from Toms betting for October/November
-
[00:36:17] The World Cup 2022 Preview - edges and angles
-
[01:02:45] Don't be one of these three idiots
-
[01:18:13} Bookiebashing bet tracker updates - Group trackers
Monday Oct 10, 2022
The BashCast 197 - The Devil You Know is Better Than the One You Don’t
Monday Oct 10, 2022
Monday Oct 10, 2022
-
[02:10] - Tom has had enough and switched off the news
-
[14:44] - Horse racing - estimating ROI with the +EV Lucky 15 lottery tickets
-
[28:15] - The golf hits a high variance period, but the "almost" wins are stacking up
-
[41:30] - Review of the coupons Aug-Sep and reports of a 24,000/1 tester bet landing
-
[51:44] - An empirical analysis to estimate underdisposition in the frequency of player braces and hattricks
-
[1:17:42} - J4o vs 78s - the poker world is rocked by a cheating scandal
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
The BashCast Episode 196 - Solve for Y is o3.5 odds against?
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
Agenda:
2:20 - Tom goes surfing and meets campsite Hitler
27:30 - Should over 3.5 goals be odds on with xG of 3.54?
40:00 - Big Horse Racing win and why recorded ROI is higher than expected ROI
56:00 - Twitch clamp down on gambling
1:20:30 - Draftkings get stung on an early payout promotion in the NFL
1:29:40 - Player xG - lineup enhancements and confidence questions
1:55:00 - How to deal with losing runs
#bettingat100.1andabove
Saturday Sep 10, 2022
The BashCast Episode 195 - 101s for show 140s for dough
Saturday Sep 10, 2022
Saturday Sep 10, 2022
--Reuploaded due to technical issues--
Warning: Tom hasn't placed a bet since the previous episode. Listen at your own risk.
- Tom recalls a Welsh Odyssey from a hot summer on the road
- Is Poisson is suitable model for estimating Shots on Target? A real world history using Mo Salah
- Site Stability, expectations and compensation
- A history of Vegas Dave - should we have included him on an article about gamblers?
- Tom react to the Social Media comments following the Betting People interviews
Thursday Jun 30, 2022
The BashCast Episode 194 - Handicap Spot
Thursday Jun 30, 2022
Thursday Jun 30, 2022
-
Tom suffers a warm up injury ahead of Mindless Wanderers v Wychbold Old Boys Charity match
-
Bookiebashing support system gets a revamp
-
New model – Handicaps tool
-
England Women v Switzerland Women – is the lack of confidence in modelling a good thing or a bad thing?
-
Tom wins a $7.50 1,068 person heads up hyper turbo bounty tournament for $1,360 in bounties whilst babysitting
Friday Jun 10, 2022
The BashCast Episode 193 - Blissful ignorance
Friday Jun 10, 2022
Friday Jun 10, 2022
-
Tom goes camping and doesn't know he hit a winner in the golf for days
-
Tom meets a group of 6-a-side lads discussing their terrible recreational mug bets on the PGA, doesn't know what to say
-
Bookiebashing Charity 7-a-side to be held on the 24th June: https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/mindless-wanderers-ukraine-fundraising
-
20 DDHH bets at 90% ROI to review
-
Both Bologna and Verona score in each half with outrageous value on the shop coupons
-
Why NatWest want to kill babies
Thursday May 05, 2022
The BashCast Episode 192 - Charity is a coat you wear twice a year
Thursday May 05, 2022
Thursday May 05, 2022
- Tom goes to turkey and gets annoyed by British tourists and then scammed
- The SBC Betting Awards:T Pete Ling joins us for a chat
- Golf betting: why you can't trust anybody
- Double Delight Hattrick Heaven: how to calculate the EV
- Why you're a prick: Part 4
Wednesday Apr 06, 2022
The BashCast Episode 191 - CraftKings and Augusta
Wednesday Apr 06, 2022
Wednesday Apr 06, 2022
-
Tom experiences a -EV trip to HobbyCraft after flirting with a 75 year old
-
A BookieBashing subscriber hits the largest win of his betting career
-
FTSIncome hold a networking event in Manchester and we were invited to join them
-
The art of Edge Identification – 5 different types of Edge in Sports Advantage Play
-
US Masters preview – Metrics, each way betting, to win, first round leader and Fantasy Draft Golf selections